Southend travel to Woking on Bank Holiday Monday looking to maintain our slim chances of finishing the season in the play-off places. We currently sit in ninth place; five points off the top seven with five matches to play, whilst Woking currently occupy third position in the league. In this article I take an in-depth look at Woking’s season and how they may approach the match.
Attack
Woking have scored 67 goals from their 41 matches, from an expected goals (xG) figure of 64.99. This means they’ve scored roughly the same amount of goals that you would’ve expected them to, based on the shots they’ve taken.
Their top scorer is Padraig Amond (12 goals, 14.94 xG), who is also a provider of goals, with seven assists to his name so far this season (5.60 xA). Reece Grego-Cox is also a capable goal scorer with nine goals so far (7.01 xG), and Rhys Browne has a combined 18 goals this season (16.19 xG), having signed from Wealdstone in October.
Attacking midfielder James Daly is also a threat (4 assists, 5.16 xA), whilst left-back Josh Casey has six assists to his name (9.11 xA), and will provide Woking with crossing ability from the left.
Compared to other sides in the division, Woking rank well at a range of metrics, including: goals, xG, shots, crosses and touches in the opposition penalty area. They have a number of attacking options to pick from, including all of the players mentioned above as well as former Southend loanee Marcus Dackers.
Defence
Defensively, Woking have only conceded 42 goals so far from an expected goals figure of 38.87. Again, this means Woking concede roughly the amount of goals you’d expect them to, possibly being slightly unlucky.
They have achieved this by conceding the second fewest amount of shots out of all sides in the league, indicating how organised their defensive structure is.
Tactics
In possession, Woking will look to use the flanks to get crosses into the box. I’ve already identified left-back Josh Casey as a creative outlet, and I think Woking will aim to push their full backs high up the pitch to provide the width in attack. I think they will then look to keep things nice and solid in the midfield by going with a midfield three, helping to form a 2-3 rest defence structure with their two centre backs.
Woking have a number of skilful players who are capable on the ball, however I don’t expect them to control possession. They have averaged a 49.4% possession share so far this season.
Out of possession, I expect Woking to press us aggressively from the front, putting our defenders under pressure, forcing us to play long passes up to our forwards. On average, Woking only allow opponents 6.83 passes before they make a defensive action, ranking them best in the league at ‘passes allowed per defensive action’ (PPDA), which is a metric used the measure the effectiveness of a side’s high press. Woking will then look to turn over possession through their pressing, aiming to exploit the space that is present when we transition from our offensive to defensive shapes.
When we manage to beat Woking’s press and have settled possession in their third, as previously mentioned, they should be able to become compact and organised, which will make them difficult to break down. We have struggled on numerous occasions to break sides down when they sit deep into low-blocks, and depending on how the match plays out, we may have to find solutions to the same kinds of problems we have faced so many times already this season.
I recently wrote about our record after scoring the first goal, and noticed that after we concede first, opponents generally allow us to have more possession by sitting deep. We are then forced to break them down, but struggle to do so. On the other hand, when we score the first goal, we don’t drop many points. Considering this and Woking’s defensive solidity, I believe the first goal tomorrow will be critical to determining the outcome of the result.
Predicted Lineup
This is how I expect Woking to line up tomorrow:
I think Woking will line up in a 4-4-2 diamond shape, with James Daly playing as a #10, and former Southend defender Kacper Łopata starting at the heart of their back four. As mentioned above, I expect Woking to push their full backs up the pitch to provide the width, and they will get crosses into the box. Their midfield trio will help to protect them during transitions when we manage to turn possession over.
Summary
To summarise, I expect this to be a close match with possession being fairly even early on. Transitions and set-pieces could be hugely important, and when the first goal is scored it will have a massive impact on how the match will be played afterwards.
Shrimper Stats 
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