Dagenham head into tomorrow’s match sitting in 10th place in the National League table, just one place and two points below Southend. The Shrimpers are currently five points off the play-offs places with a game in hand on 7th placed Eastleigh, with just four matches of the regular season to play.
In this article, I’ll look at some of the numbers behind Dagenham’s season, their recent line-ups, key players and how they may look to approach the match tactically.
Key Statistics
The further the bar is to the right, the better the rank.
Dagenham have gained 58 points so far this season. When you consider how many points they would have been expected to pick up based on the shots they’ve taken and faced, an expected points figure of 47.7 is generated. This means that based on this, they’ve overperformed by around 10 points.
When you look into the numbers a little further, we can see that a lot of this overperformance will be due to them scoring more goals (57) than expected (50.44). An overperformance in expected goals can be down to any of the following: good finishing, poor goalkeeping and luck, and you’d imagine that this isn’t sustainable longer term.
Defensively, Dagenham have conceded 68 goals from an expected goals against figure of 71.43. This means that they’ve conceded roughly three goals fewer than they would’ve been expect to based on the shots they’ve faced. A big reason for this is due to the form of goalkeeper Elliot Justham. He has conceded 61 goals from an expected goals conceded (xGC) figure of 64.68 – meaning he’s saved around three goals fewer than expected.
Recent Line-Ups
L-R; Dorking Wanderers (H) 01/04/23, Boreham Wood (A) 07/04/23, Chesterfield (H) 10/04/23
With Justham now recovered from injury, Dagenham’s defence is settled, having named an unchanged back four and goalkeeper in their last two matches. Their midfield has changed recently, but striker Inih Effiong will be expected to lead the line in attack.
Key Players
The aforementioned Elliot Justham should start in goal for Dagenham. He has conceded 61 goals from an expected goals conceded (xGC) figure of 64.68 so far this season.
Former Southend player Myles Weston (6 assists, 6.28 expected assists [xA]) will need no introduction. His 1v1 ability makes him a threat from wide areas, and he has the speed to cause us problems on the counter attack. He has also made 18 key passes so far this season – Southend’s Jack Bridge has made 27.
Striker Inih Effiong is a very important player for Dagenham. After signing from Aldershot Town earlier in the season he has scored seven goals in 14 league matches. He has a combined 21 goals (17.65 xG) for Aldershot and Dagenham so far this season.
Tactics
Below is my tactical review of the reverse fixture between the sides. I felt that Dagenham were effective in transition, when turning the ball over and committing players forwards to attack. A half time substitution and change in formation for Southend allowed us to have lots more control in the second half as we came from 1-0 down to take a point home.
I expect Southend to control possession in this one, with Dagenham happy to sit deeper in their defensive block and soak up the pressure. They may try to fill the space in and around their penalty area, forcing us to have a lot of shots from long range. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Myles Weston dropping into defence to form a situational back five when Dagenham are defending deeper.
In possession, I think Dagenham will look to skip the first phase of build-up, looking to get the ball forwards quickly instead. Here, they may try to get lots of players forwards to support the attack, whether on the counter attack or through possession.
Shrimper Stats 
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