Southend travel to Boundary Park in ninth place, three points off the National League play-off places with three matches to play, to face an Oldham side sitting 14th in the table.
Oldham have got themselves to safety in recent weeks after a tough start to their first season in the National League after their relegation from League Two last year. In this article I will look at some key statistics, Oldham’s form, recent line-ups, key players, and suggest how I think the match may play out tactically.
Key Statistics
The further the bar is to the right, the better the rank.
Oldham have taken 54 points from their 43 matches so far this season, ever so slightly more than their expected points figure of 50.6.
They have conceded 63 goals, which is exactly what you would have expected them to concede based on the shots they have faced this season (62.52 expected goals against).
In attack, Oldham have scored a respectable 57 goals from an expected goals (xG) figure of 45.77 – suggesting that they have been clinical with the chances they have been presented with. However, it does seem unlikely they will be able to sustain this over performance long-term as we head in to next season.
Form
Oldham have picked up eight points in their last five matches, scoring eight and conceding nine. However, five of these goals against came in their away match to Wrexham, which is also their only defeat in these matches. They have won both of their last two matches without conceding a goal.
Recent Line-Ups
Oldham have used a 4-4-2 formation recently, and have had the luxury of fielding an almost unchanged starting XI in their last three matches, with just Bassala Sambou replacing Joe Nuttall in their last match at home to Maidenhead United.
Clockwise: Maidenhead Utd (15/04/23), Scunthorpe Utd (10/04/23), Altrincham (07/04/23).
Key Players
Joe Nuttall has a combined 15 league goals so far this season (14.12 xG) since joining from now relegated Scunthorpe United.
Alex Reid has scored 10 league goals (9.10 xG) combined for Solihull Moors and Oldham, after signing earlier in the season.
If selected, both will be important players for Oldham.
Tactics
With Oldham’s average possession share of 46%, I expect Southend to have the majority of the ball. This could mean that we will have to find solutions to break down Oldham’s low-block if they sit deeper, something that we’ve struggled to do all season. More recently we have had less possession but have taken our chances when they’ve come rather than control matches, which may not be the case tonight.
There’s not an awful lot that stands out statistically from an Oldham point of view, but they only allow an average xG per Shot of 0.114 – which is the eighth best in the division. This means that when Oldham allow us to shoot, these shots may be from low-quality situations, for example from the outside of the penalty area.
In-possession, I expect Oldham to skip the first phase of build-up and play long balls to their forwards. They have attempted the ninth most amount of long passes in the division, despite their low average possession share.
I also expect set-pieces could be crucial tonight.
Shrimper Stats 
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