Southend face Wealdstone at Roots Hall tomorrow on the final day of the regular National League season. We currently sit three points outside of the play-off places in 8th place, behind Boreham Wood who are at home to already relegated Yeovil Town.
Wealdstone are in 13th place on 60 points, and can move into 10th position if results go their way.
In this article I will look at some key statistics, Wealdstone’s form, their recent line-ups, key players, and a prediction of how the match will look tactically.
Key Statistics and Tactics
The further the bar is to the right, the better the rank.
Wealdstone have accumulated 60 points with one match to play, which is a fair bit more than their expected points figure of 48.7. This means that they have taken roughly 11 more points than you would have expected them to, based on the shots they have taken and faced so far this season.
This overperformance can be explained when you consider Wealdstone have scored slightly more goals than expected (56 vs. 52.60), and conceded slightly fewer than expected (68 vs. 72.43).
The data tells us that Wealdstone will look to control possession and build play from defence, although they have some difficulty in turning this possession into dangerous territory, and therefore chances. This could mean that they could be patient and recycle possession in defence if we can prevent them from moving the ball forwards, rather than play the ball long at the first sign of trouble.
This could help us, as we may have space to exploit in transition rather than having to break Wealdstone down as often as in our recent match away to Oldham Athletic. We should then hopefully be able to defend our penalty area well enough to limit Wealdstone’s chances when they do progress play forwards.
Out of possession, it looks like Wealdstone won’t offer a particularly aggressive high press, instead looking to keep things tight at the back.
Form
Wealdstone have gained four points in their last five matches, having gone unbeaten in their last two.
After going eight matches without a win, Wealdstone comprehensively beat Solihull Moors at home on Tuesday night 3-0. This was also their first clean sheet in their last 11 matches.
Recent Line-Ups
From left to right, top to bottom;
Solihull Moors (H) 25/04/23, Dorking Wanderers (H) 22/04/23, Aldershot Town (H) 18/04/23, Boreham Wood (A) 15/04/23
Wealdstone look to have settled on a 3-4-2-1 formation in their last two matches, but they are able to go with either a back three or four, so it makes predicting a formation and starting XI difficult.
An interesting tactical aspect to Wealdstone’s game is their ability to change formation during matches depending on the situation. With a big emphasis on building from defence, if they are caused problems during the build-up phase by the opposition, they are able to change formation to give them numerical superiorities in the first phase if things aren’t working for them.
Key Players
Micah Obiero (8 goals, 5.65 xG) is possibly Wealdstone’s biggest threat. He will offer 1v1 ability out on the right hand side, potentially giving Louis Lomas a difficult match if he continues on the left side of the back three, and is a goal threat.
Left-sided player Charles Clayden has scored two goals in Wealdstone’s last two matches, and Dominic Hutchinson has started the last two matches as a centre forward.
Olufela Olomola (7 goals, 8.57 xG) is also a threat, although he hasn’t started either of Wealdstone’s last two matches.
Ex-Southend midfielder Nathan Ferguson plays for Wealdstone, while I am a fan of attacking midfielder Tarryn Allarakhia (5 goals, 5.04 xG) and goalkeeper Sam Howes.
Shrimper Stats 
You must be logged in to post a comment.